Highly Athletic" QB's have a tendency to not win Super Bowls. Michael Vick of the Philadelphia Eagles is great to watch, but un-athletic, Trent Dilfer-types win the Super Bowl. Vince Young was highly athletic, but he couldn't win with a pretty decent team in the Tennessee Titans. DeMarcus Russell was athletic, but had no work ethic. Tim Tebow is athletic, has a great work ethic, but plodding Payton Manning of the Indianapolis Colts and Tom Brady of the New England Patriots are the guys that win Super Bowls. So, not only will Cam Newton not be a Super Bowl QB, he will have a passing rating of less than 60 this year, and he will not be able to read NFL defenses for a long time, because "athletic" QB's are put in a spread offense in college and have major difficulty making the translation to the NFL. (Hear that Tim Tebow?)
It's tough for a defensive rookie to be Rookie of the Year. To stand out on defensive, you need to either get lots of interceptions or lots of sacks. Will Von Miller or Marcell Dareus get lots of sacks with the Denver Broncos and the Buffalo Bills respectively? I doubt it. The rest of the defense isn't good enough. But then, someone like Patrick Peterson of the Arizona Cardinals can pick off a few passes here and there with a team that is not horrible on defense.
Jake Locker, Blaine Gabbert and Christian Ponder, all QB's won't be playing this year, so they are not even in the running. Offensive tackles like Tyron Smith and Nate Solder are never selected.
Nick Fairley of the Detroit Lions has a pretty good chance of being the top rookie because he will be playing with Ndamukong Suh. Opposing teams will be focusing on Suh, which will give Fairley an opportunity for big numbers in sacks, takeaways and tackles. And remember, at one time, Nick Fairley was on the list for being selected number 1 in the draft. So, it will not surprise me if he is the NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year.
Wide receivers can put up numbers as rookies that get them a lot of attention, but they need two things: a good quarterback and a good WR as a teammate. If you don't have a quarterback who knows what he is doing, and you don't have another wide receiver to attract the attention of the defense, you're in deep trouble. A.J. Green can be a great receiver. Too bad he wasn't available for the Browns. But, who on the Cincinnati Bengals is throwing to him? Bruce Gradkowski? I guess so. Definitely not second round QB Andy Dalton, who was regarded the 6th quarterback in a weak QB year.
Which leaves us with WR Julio Jones of the Atlanta Falcons. Who is his QB? Matt Ryan. Doesn't get much better than that. Who else is catching the ball in Atlanta: Tony Gonzalez, future hall of famer. Looks like a great opportunity for a rookie to put up the numbers needed to win the crown.
But wait, there's more! A sleeper! Yes, its Heisman Trophy winner Mark Ingram, selected 28th in the draft by the New Orleans Saints. The team is great, the quarterback is great, the offense is great, and he was the first running back taken in the draft. This has all of the sounds of a 1,500 yard year for Mr. Ingram, in which case, he will be a shoo-in for NFL Rookie of the Year.
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